Triggered by the resignation of Josh Simons MP (Labour) on 14 May 2026 to clear a Westminster seat for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who needed to be an MP before he could stand for the Labour leadership. Burnham won the seat on 18 June 2026 with a majority of 9,231.
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Context
Why this by-election
On 14 May 2026 Josh Simons, Labour MP for Makerfield since the July 2024 general election, announced he would resign his seat. The trigger was the Starmer leadership crisis: with the Prime Minister's position under sustained pressure inside the parliamentary party, allies of Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham began pressing for a route back to the Commons. Under Labour's rules, a leadership challenger must be a sitting MP, and Burnham — out of Parliament since 2017 — had no seat from which to move.
The Labour NEC approved Burnham to stand for selection on 15 May, the constituency party scheduled a selection meeting for 21 May, and the writ was moved shortly afterwards. The by-election was held on 18 June 2026. Burnham indicated he would step down as Greater Manchester Mayor before taking up the seat.
By-election
18 June 2026
Labour Hold
Majority9,231
Turnout58.7%
Electorate77,462
Candidates14
Candidate
Party
Votes
Share
Andy Burnham
Labour
24,927
54.8%
Rob Kenyon
Reform UK
15,696
34.5%
Rebecca Lee Shepherd
Restore Britain
3,111
6.8%
Michael William Winstanley
Conservative
997
2.2%
Sarah Elizabeth Wakefield
Green Party
308
0.7%
Jake Austin
Liberal Democrat
163
0.4%
Count Binface
Count Binface Party
95
0.2%
Howling Laud Hope
Official Monster Raving Loony Party
45
0.1%
John Alfred Dyer
Independent
37
0.1%
Peter Mark Ward
Rejoin EU
35
0.1%
Ed Gemmell
Climate Party
18
0.0%
Robert Neil Pownall
Independent
18
0.0%
Dan Clarke
Libertarian Party
18
0.0%
Paul Richard Gould
Independent
8
0.0%
45,476 valid votes. Shares are of valid votes. Source: UK Parliament, retrieved 21 August 2026.
Prediction market
Prediction market
Source: Polymarket Winner market. Updated 6 Jun.
Polymarket is a US-based crypto prediction market, geo-blocked in the UK. These probabilities reflect what global traders are willing to bet on each outcome, not UK bookmaker odds. Polymarket has been more confident on this race than the only published constituency poll (Survation, 18–22 May: Burnham 43% vs Kenyon 40%).
Andy Burnham
Labour82.5%+9.0pp (7d)
Robert Kenyon
Reform UK15.5%−7.0pp (7d)
Rebecca Shepherd
Restore Britain2.9%−1.7pp (7d)
Simon Finkelstein
Party not listed0.1%0.0pp (7d)
Maria Deery
Party not listed0.1%0.0pp (7d)
John Skipworth
Party not listed0.1%0.0pp (7d)
James Thomas Bryer
Party not listed0.1%0.0pp (7d)
Andy BurnhamRobert KenyonRebecca ShepherdSimon FinkelsteinMaria DeeryJohn SkipworthJames Thomas Bryer
Total volume traded: $2,370,498
2024 General Election
The 2024 baseline
Lab hold. Labour majority of 5,399 over Reform UK. Turnout 52.5% on an electorate of 76,641.
Labour18,202 - 45.2%
Reform12,803 - 31.8%
Conservative4,379 - 10.9%
Lib Dem2,735 - 6.8%
Green1,776 - 4.4%
Other368 - 0.9%
May 2026 local elections
The May 2026 benchmark
Council elections on 7 May 2026 covered all eight Wigan wards inside the Makerfield constituency. Reform UK won every ward. Local elections have lower turnout than parliamentary by-elections; Reform fielded a full slate, and Burnham's personal vote is not captured here.
Reform won all 8 wards with ~50% of the vote, overturning a Labour 13.4-point GE lead.
Aggregate across 8 wards
Reform14,223 - 49.8%
Labour7,686 - 26.9%
Green2,960 - 10.4%
Conservative2,117 - 7.4%
Lib Dem1,029 - 3.6%
Independent554 - 1.9%
Ward by ward
Ward
Turnout
Reform
Labour
Green
Conservative
Lib Dem
Independent
Winner
Abram
33.1%
1,958
844
394
158
138
—
Reform 56.1%
Ashton-in-Makerfield South
38.5%
1,572
1,100
432
285
—
—
Reform 46.4%
Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield North
37.8%
1,770
816
400
229
177
—
Reform 52.2%
Hindley
35.3%
1,832
750
374
140
125
282
Reform 52.3%
Hindley Green
38.9%
1,878
1,172
258
174
106
—
Reform 52.3%
Orrell
43.0%
1,621
983
470
787
199
—
Reform 39.9%
Winstanley
42.4%
1,881
1,174
312
243
176
—
Reform 49.7%
Worsley Mesnes
37.4%
1,711
847
320
101
108
272
Reform 50.9%
Wigan operates elections by thirds: only one of three seats per ward was contested on 7 May 2026. The aggregate is a fair vote-share snapshot but not a like-for-like with a Westminster vote. Source: Wigan Council election results.
Census 2021
2021 census snapshot
Headline indicators only — the full year selector and metric picker live on the census map.
Makerfield is one of the most demographically homogeneous seats in England and Wales: nearly 95% White British and over 95% UK-born, well above the national average. On the standard demographic indicators it looks like the kind of working-class, post-industrial Northern seat where Reform UK has been most competitive in the polling and council cycles of 2025–2026.
Projection
2026 demographic projection (extrapolated)
This sits alongside the 2021 snapshot above: the current census remains the measured baseline, while the figures below are a forward extrapolation only.
Methodology
These figures are not measurements. They extrapolate the trend between 2011 and 2021 forward five years, assuming the rate of change continues at the same pace. Real demographic change is rarely linear — local housing developments, migration policy, university expansions and other one-off events can move the numbers in either direction. Where a category was not measured in the basis year, no projection is shown. Projections are clamped to plausible ranges (0–100%) and re-normalised so categories sum to 100%.
Ethnicity
Projected from 2011→2021 trend
White
-0.7pp
2021 actual
96.7%
2026 projectionExtrapolated
95.9%
Asian
+0.2pp
2021 actual
1.2%
2026 projectionExtrapolated
1.4%
Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups
+0.2pp
2021 actual
1.0%
2026 projectionExtrapolated
1.2%
Black, African or Caribbean
+0.2pp
2021 actual
0.7%
2026 projectionExtrapolated
0.8%
Other
+0.2pp
2021 actual
0.5%
2026 projectionExtrapolated
0.6%
Categories sum to 100% (after re-normalisation). 2021 total: 100.0%. 2026 projected total: 100.0%.
Country of birth
Projected from 2011→2021 trend
UK
-0.8pp
2021 actual
95.8%
2026 projectionExtrapolated
94.9%
Other countries
+0.2pp
2021 actual
2.1%
2026 projectionExtrapolated
2.4%
Other EU
+0.6pp
2021 actual
2.1%
2026 projectionExtrapolated
2.7%
Categories sum to 100% (after re-normalisation). 2021 total: 100.0%. 2026 projected total: 100.0%.
Religion
Projected from 2011→2021 trend
Christian
-7.3pp
2021 actual
65.3%
2026 projectionExtrapolated
58.0%
No religion
+7.4pp
2021 actual
28.6%
2026 projectionExtrapolated
36.0%
Not stated
-0.4pp
2021 actual
4.5%
2026 projectionExtrapolated
4.1%
Muslim
+0.2pp
2021 actual
0.8%
2026 projectionExtrapolated
1.0%
Other
+0.1pp
2021 actual
0.3%
2026 projectionExtrapolated
0.4%
Buddhist
+0.0pp
2021 actual
0.2%
2026 projectionExtrapolated
0.3%
Other (grouped remainder)
Includes: Hindu, Sikh, Jewish
+0.0pp
2021 actual
0.2%
2026 projectionExtrapolated
0.3%
Categories sum to 100% (after re-normalisation). 2021 total: 100.0%. 2026 projected total: 100.0%.
History
History of the seat
Makerfield has been continuously Labour-held since its creation in 1983. Ian McCartney represented the seat from 1987 to 2010, serving in several Cabinet and ministerial roles under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Yvonne Fovargue succeeded him in 2010 and held it until standing down at the 2024 general election, when Josh Simons won with a 13.4-point majority over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon. Simons's resignation in May 2026 ends a 43-year unbroken Labour run.