Constituency view

Holborn and St Pancras

London, England

Labour Hold · 2026 by-election

By-electionSagal Abdi-Wali won the 2026 by-election (Labour Hold). See the campaign, candidates and full result on the by-election page.

Current MP

Current representation

Sagal Abdi-Wali

Labour

By-election

8 October 2026

Labour Hold

Majority3,364

Turnout38.8%

ElectorateNot published

Candidates15

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Sagal Abdi-Wali	Labour	12,292	45.2%
Zack Polanski	Green Party	8,928	32.8%
Ewan Cameron	Conservative	1,922	7.1%
Peter Newman	Reform UK	1,612	5.9%
Patrick Stillman	Liberal Democrat	924	3.4%
Tyler Kurtis Johnson	Restore Britain	692	2.5%
George Galloway	Workers Party of Britain	314	1.2%
Briony Kapoor	Rejoin EU	236	0.9%
Barmy Brunch	Official Monster Raving Loony Party	87	0.3%
Helen Spiby-Vann	Christian Peoples Alliance	63	0.2%
Clare Fischer	Climate Party	51	0.2%
Ben Walker	UKIP	51	0.2%
Ketankumar Pipaliya	UK Voice	23	0.1%
Jonathan Silberman	Communist League	9	0.0%
Tom Darwood	Independent	7	0.0%

27,211 valid votes. Shares are of valid votes. Source: Camden Council, retrieved 9 October 2026.

2024 general election

Majority11,572

Turnout54.1%

Electorate71,300

Valid votes38,602

2024 Results

Party breakdown

Labour18,884 - 48.9%

Other8,305 - 21.5%

Green4,030 - 10.4%

Conservative2,776 - 7.2%

Reform2,371 - 6.1%

Lib Dem2,236 - 5.8%

Projections

Model-based estimates from third parties, not polls of this constituency. Figures may change as models update.

Source: Electoral Calculus, captured 1 October 2026.

Model-based projection from national polling on a general-election basis, not a local constituency poll. Its Other figure carries forward the 2024 independent vote, though Andrew Feinstein is not standing.

Labour40.0%

Green24.0%

Reform14.6%

Other10.6%

Conservative7.1%

Lib Dem3.7%

Source: PollCheck, captured 1 October 2026.

By-election model, central scenario. Labour win in 70% of 10,000 simulations. Other includes George Galloway (Workers Party) on 3.0%.

Labour41.7%

Green37.8%

Other8.4%

Reform7.8%

Lib Dem2.7%

Conservative1.7%

Source: Stats for Lefties, captured 1 October 2026.

Blend of the May 2026 local election results in the seat (69%) and GB polling trends (31%), as stated on the published graphic.

Labour39.0%

Green32.0%

Conservative10.0%

Reform9.0%

Lib Dem7.0%

Other3.0%

Benefits bill · 2025/26

£379,345,883

Estimated yearly spend on the six main working-age and disability benefits paid to residents of this constituency.

£3,391 total benefits bill per resident · 50% above average

Holborn and St Pancras: £3,391
England and Wales average: £2,259

Ranked 42 of 575 constituencies (1 = highest)

Total benefits bill	£379,345,883	57/575
Change over 2 years	+20.4%
Median local wage (2025)	£55,106	+21.1%

Universal Credit£227,033,338
£2,030 per resident · 15,855 households claiming
Assessed LCWRA: 6,537 · 1 in 13 working-age adults
Personal Independence Payment£63,994,790
£572 per resident · 8,550 claimants (+15.9% since Jul 2024)
Psychiatric conditions: 3,842 · 45% of claimants
Enhanced mobility (Motability-eligible): 4,182
Housing Benefit£56,208,054
£503 per resident · 5,084 claimants
Disability Living Allowance£14,422,276
£129 per resident · 2,339 claimants
Carer's Allowance£9,674,752
£86 per resident · 2,242 claimants
Employment Support Allowance£8,012,674
£72 per resident · 1,182 claimants

Ranks are out of England and Wales constituencies, highest first. Source: TaxPayers' Alliance, benefitsdata.uk (estimated from DWP Stat-Xplore claimant counts). England and Wales only. See this seat on benefitsdata.uk ↗

Demographics

Source: ONS Census 2021 (England, Wales, NI) and Scotland's Census 2022, aggregated to 2024 constituency boundaries by the House of Commons Library.

Ethnic composition

2021

White 54.8%White British 33.6%Asian 21.7%Black, African or Caribbean 10.7%Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups 6.8%Other 6.0%

England & Wales (2021)

White 83.0%White British 74.4%Asian 8.6%Black, African or Caribbean 3.7%Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups 2.7%Other 2.0%

2011

White 61.5%White British 42.0%Asian 19.5%Black, African or Caribbean 9.7%Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups 5.5%Other 3.7%

England & Wales (2011)

White 86.0%White British 80.5%Asian 7.5%Black, African or Caribbean 3.3%Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups 2.2%Other 1.0%

2001

White 68.2%White British 50.1%Asian 16.2%Black, African or Caribbean 9.2%Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups 3.7%Other 2.6%

England & Wales (2001)

White 91.3%White British 87.5%Asian 4.8%Black, African or Caribbean 2.2%Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups 1.3%Other 0.4%

1991

White 79.3%White British N/AAsian 12.1%Black, African or Caribbean 6.1%Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups 0.0%Other 2.5%

England & Wales (1991)

White 94.1%White British N/AAsian 3.6%Black, African or Caribbean 1.8%Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups 0.0%Other 0.6%

Year-over-year comparison uses broad ethnic groups.

2011 values are reaggregated from 2011 Output Areas onto 2024 boundaries.

2001 values are reaggregated from 2001 LSOAs onto 2024 boundaries.

1991 values are reaggregated from 1997 parliamentary constituencies onto 2024 boundaries.

Country of birth

Holborn and St Pancras (2021)

UK 55.2%Other EU 13.8%Other countries 31.0%

England & Wales (2021)

UK 84.0%Other EU 6.0%Other countries 10.1%

Holborn and St Pancras (2011)

UK 57.9%Other EU 10.4%Other countries 31.7%

England & Wales (2011)

UK 86.6%Other EU 3.6%Other countries 9.8%

Holborn and St Pancras (2001)

UK 63.5%Other EU 5.7%Other countries 30.8%

England & Wales (2001)

UK 91.1%Other EU 1.4%Other countries 7.5%

Holborn and St Pancras (1991)

UK 69.9%Other EU 10.6%Other countries 19.6%

England & Wales (1991)

UK 92.7%Other EU 2.5%Other countries 4.8%

1991 country of birth data uses the 1991 census's Commonwealth-based classification. Ireland and EU countries are not separately broken out. Regional figures are approximations.

Inset map

Holborn and St Pancras

Loading constituency outline.

Comparison

How this seat compares

Metric	Holborn and St Pancras	National	Difference	Rank
% White	54.8%	83.0%	-28.2pp	599/650
% White British	33.6%	74.4%	-40.8pp	592/632
% Asian	21.7%	8.6%	+13.1pp	53/650
% Black, African or Caribbean	10.7%	3.7%	+6.9pp	58/650
% Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups	6.8%	2.7%	+4.1pp	21/650
% Other ethnic group	6.0%	2.0%	+4.1pp	35/650
% UK-born	55.2%	84.0%	-28.8pp	621/650
% Non-UK-born	44.8%	16.0%	+28.8pp	30/650
% Other EU-born	13.8%	6.0%	+7.9pp	35/650
% Other countries-born	31.0%	10.1%	+20.9pp	31/650
% Christian	30.8%	46.7%	-15.9pp	552/575
% Muslim	19.5%	6.3%	+13.2pp	38/575
% Hindu	1.3%	1.6%	-0.3pp	165/575
% Sikh	0.2%	0.9%	-0.6pp	263/575
% Jewish	2.1%	0.5%	+1.6pp	18/575
% Buddhist	1.1%	0.4%	+0.6pp	20/575
% Other religion	0.8%	0.6%	+0.3pp	51/575
% No religion	35.2%	37.0%	-1.8pp	399/575
% Religion not stated	8.9%	6.0%	+3.0pp	5/575
% Has any religion	55.9%	57.0%	-1.1pp	267/575

Nearby seats

Constituencies around Holborn and St Pancras

Neighbouring constituencies on 2024 boundaries, ordered by the length of the shared border.

Source: ONS Westminster Parliamentary Constituencies (July 2024) Boundaries UK BSC. Seats with a short coastline or none, such as islands, are completed with the closest constituencies by distance.