British Political Data
UK · Pensions

The triple lock and the State Pension

The history of the triple lock, what it has cost, and how pensions compare with National Insurance paid in.

Section 1

What the triple lock is

The triple lock is a government commitment to raise the State Pension each April by whichever is highest of three measures: price inflation (CPI in the September before), average earnings growth (May to July), or 2.5%. It was announced by the coalition government in 2010. It is a policy commitment rather than a law; the legal minimum is an earnings uprating for the new and basic State Pension, and the additional State Pension rises with CPI.

£241.30Full new State Pension per week, 2026/27
6Upratings set by earnings growth
5Upratings set by CPI inflation (including 2022/23)
4Upratings set by the 2.5% floor

Section 2

Each year's uprating since 2011

The highlighted cell shows which measure set the increase. In April 2011 the basic State Pension rose by RPI (4.6%) under a one-off guarantee in the June 2010 Budget, so the OBR counts the triple lock as applying from 2012/13. In 2022/23 the earnings element was suspended for one year by the Social Security (Up-rating of Benefits) Act 2021, because earnings growth was distorted by the pandemic, and CPI was used instead. Earnings figures are those used at the time; ONS has since revised some.

April ofCPIEarningsFloorIncrease givenSet byBasic pension (week)New pension (week)
2011/123.1%1.3%2.5%4.6%RPI (one-off guarantee)£102.15—
2012/135.2%2.8%2.5%5.2%Inflation (CPI)£107.45—
2013/142.2%1.6%2.5%2.5%2.5% floor£110.15—
2014/152.7%1.2%2.5%2.7%Inflation (CPI)£113.10—
2015/161.2%0.6%2.5%2.5%2.5% floor£115.95—
2016/17-0.1%2.9%2.5%2.9%Earnings£119.30£155.65
2017/181.0%2.4%2.5%2.5%2.5% floor£122.30£159.55
2018/193.0%2.3%2.5%3.0%Inflation (CPI)£125.95£164.35
2019/202.4%2.6%2.5%2.6%Earnings£129.20£168.60
2020/211.7%3.9%2.5%3.9%Earnings£134.25£175.20
2021/220.5%-1.0%2.5%2.5%2.5% floor£137.60£179.60
2022/233.1%8.3%2.5%3.1%CPI (earnings element suspended)£141.85£185.15
2023/2410.1%5.5%2.5%10.1%Inflation (CPI)£156.20£203.85
2024/256.7%8.5%2.5%8.5%Earnings£169.50£221.20
2025/261.7%4.1%2.5%4.1%Earnings£176.45£230.25
2026/273.8%4.8%2.5%4.8%Earnings£184.90£241.30
  • State Pension uprating and rates — latest: April 2026 · DWP · April 2027 uprating is usually announced in late November

Section 3

The State Pension since 1975

Full weekly rates in cash terms. The new State Pension replaced the basic State Pension for people reaching State Pension age from 6 April 2016; people who reached it before then stay on the basic State Pension, plus any additional State Pension.

Full State Pension per week (£, cash)

Basic State PensionNew State Pension
£0£50£100£150£200£250£3001975198019861992199820042010201620222026-04

Section 4

What the State Pension costs

State Pension spending in Great Britain (including UK State Pensions paid overseas). The State Pension is the largest single item of welfare spending. Spending also rises with the number of people over State Pension age, which is growing; the State Pension age rose to 66 in 2020 and is rising to 67 between 2026 and 2028.

State Pension spending, £bn in 2026/27 prices

OutturnDWP forecast
£0bn£50bn£100bn£150bn£200bn199019952000200520102015202020252030/31

State Pension spending as a share of GDP

OutturnDWP forecast
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%199019952000200520102015202020252030/31

Official estimates of the triple lock's cost

The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates how much higher State Pension spending is because of the triple lock than it would have been under other uprating rules applied since 2012/13. When it was introduced in 2010 the OBR estimated it would add about £0.5bn a year by 2014/15.

Compared withExtra spending in 2029/30Source
Uprating by earnings£15.5bn a yearOBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2025
Uprating by CPI£22.9bn a yearOBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2025
  • State Pension spending — latest: 2024/25 outturn; forecasts to 2030/31 (Spring 2026) · DWP · Next with the autumn Budget forecast
  • Triple lock cost estimates — latest: July 2025 and July 2026 reports · OBR · Fiscal risks report, usually July

Section 5

National Insurance paid in vs State Pension received

A stylised comparison for a full-time worker on median earnings: one year's rules applied to a 40-year career and to a retirement lasting the average remaining life expectancy at State Pension age. Amounts are in 2025/26 prices. National Insurance is not a savings account: contributions pay for current pensioners, and part goes to the NHS, so this shows how the balance between the two has changed rather than what any individual is owed.

National Insurance: Pension: Retiree:

1996/97 rules

1.02×

£106kpaid in£108kreceived

Pay £301.10 a week · NI £1,312 a year × 40 years
Pension £3,180 a year (full basic State Pension) × 16.9 years from age 65 · cash × 2.02 for 2025/26 prices

2025/26 rules

2.64×

£87kpaid in£230kreceived

Pay £766.60 a week · NI £2,182 a year × 40 years
Pension £11,973 a year (full new State Pension) × 19.3 years from age 66

Circle areas are to the same scale across both years.

Assumptions and what this leaves out

  • Median gross weekly pay of full-time employees: £301.10 in April 1996 (New Earnings Survey, Great Britain) and £766.60 in April 2025 (ASHE, UK), at that year's NI rates and thresholds (standard, not contracted-out, rates for 1996/97).
  • The same pay and rules are applied for every year of the career and retirement; there is no earnings growth, career breaks, discounting or interest.
  • Retirement length is ONS cohort life expectancy at State Pension age: 65 for men and 60 for women in 1996/97, 66 for both in 2025/26.
  • The 1996/97 full rate is the basic State Pension only. Someone paying full-rate NI then also built up the additional State Pension (SERPS), so the full-rate figure understates their pension; the “average paid” option includes it. The 1996/97 average is derived from DWP spending and caseload.
  • Part of NI funds the NHS: about 11% of NI receipts in 1996/97 and about 18% in 2025/26. National Insurance also pays for other contributory benefits.
  • The change between the two years reflects several things, not only the triple lock: the 2016 new State Pension, higher pension age, longer life expectancy, and lower employee NI rates and higher thresholds (the main rate fell from 12% to 8% in 2024).
  • NI and pension inputs — latest: 2025/26 rules; April 2025 earnings · HMRC, ONS, DWP · Update when 2026/27 rates and ASHE 2026 are used

Section 6

Timeline of State Pension uprating policy

  1. 1974Earnings link. DWP up-rating history: from 1974 benefits were up-rated by the higher of prices or earnings. Source
  2. 1980-05-23Social Security Act 1980. Royal Assent; up-rating reviews to have regard only to prices for most benefits including pensions, ending the earnings link (DWP Abstract notes date the break to 1982). Source
  3. 1995-07-19Pensions Act 1995. Royal Assent; women's State Pension age to rise from 60 to 65 in stages between April 2010 and 2020. Source
  4. 2001-04Basic State Pension up 5.00 a week. Full basic State Pension raised from 67.50 to 72.50 a week (7.4%). Source
  5. 20032.5% minimum increase. DWP: announced that the basic State Pension would rise by at least 2.5% for the rest of the Parliament; the June 2010 Budget describes up-rating in the previous Parliament as the higher of prices or 2.5%. Source
  6. 2007-07-26Pensions Act 2007. Royal Assent; State Pension age to rise from 65 to 68 between 2024 and 2046; inserted section 150A requiring annual review of the basic pension against earnings. Source
  7. 2010-05-20Coalition programme for government. Commitment to restore the earnings link for the basic State Pension from April 2011 with a triple guarantee of the higher of earnings, prices or 2.5%. Source
  8. 2010-06-22June 2010 Budget. Triple guarantee from April 2011 with CPI as the price measure; basic State Pension to rise by at least RPI in April 2011. Source
  9. 2011-04First triple-lock up-rating. Basic State Pension up 4.6% (RPI) to 102.15 a week; the OBR dates the triple lock from 2012-13. Source
  10. 2011-11-03Pensions Act 2011. Royal Assent; women's State Pension age reaches 65 by November 2018 and 66 for all by October 2020. Source
  11. 2014-05-14Pensions Act 2014. Royal Assent; new State Pension from 6 April 2016; State Pension age 67 between 2026 and 2028; periodic State Pension age reviews. Source
  12. 2016-04-06New State Pension starts. Full new State Pension of 155.65 a week for people reaching State Pension age from 6 April 2016. Source
  13. 2017-07-19First State Pension age review concluded. Government accepted the Cridland recommendation to raise State Pension age to 68 between 2037 and 2039, subject to a further review; not legislated. Source
  14. 2020-11-23Social Security (Up-rating of Benefits) Act 2020. Royal Assent; allowed pensions to be up-rated for 2021/22 despite no growth in earnings; pensions rose 2.5%. Source
  15. 2021-09-08Bill to suspend earnings element published. Social Security (Uprating of Benefits) Bill 2021-22 published to suspend the earnings element for 2022/23 after 8.3% May-July earnings growth. Source
  16. 2021-11-17Social Security (Up-rating of Benefits) Act 2021. Royal Assent; 2022/23 review by prices with a 2.5% minimum instead of earnings; pensions rose 3.1% (CPI) in April 2022. Source
  17. 2023-03-30Second State Pension age review published. Rise to 67 in 2026-28 confirmed; timing of the rise to 68 left to a further review. Source
  18. 2024-07-042024 manifesto: Labour. Manifesto states: "Labour will retain the triple lock for the state pension." Source
  19. 2024-07-042024 manifesto: Conservative. "Triple Lock Plus": continue up-rating the State Pension by the highest of prices, earnings or 2.5% and raise the tax-free allowance for pensioners by the same measure. Source
  20. 2024-07-042024 manifesto: Liberal Democrat. Manifesto states: "Support pensioners by protecting the triple lock so that pensions always rise in line with inflation, wages or 2.5%". Source
  21. 2024-07-042024 manifesto: Green. Manifesto states: "Ensure that pensions are always uprated in line with inflation and keep pace with wage rises across the economy"; the triple lock is not named. Source
  22. 2024-07-042024 manifesto: Reform UK. "Our Contract with You" makes no commitment on State Pension up-rating; it proposes a review of pension provision. Source
  23. 2025-07-21Third State Pension age review launched. Independent report (Dr Suzy Morrissey) and Government Actuary report commissioned; no outcome published on GOV.UK by 12 Oct 2026. Source
  24. 2025-11-26April 2026 up-rating announced. Basic and new State Pensions to rise 4.8% in line with earnings; additional State Pension 3.8% (CPI). Source

Sources

Data sources