UK fertility rate and births
The total fertility rate in England and Wales was 1.39 in 2025, according to ONS (Births in England and Wales: 2025 (final rates), published 8 September 2026).
Fertility
Total fertility rate
Total fertility rate, England & Wales, 1990–2025
The total fertility rate is the average number of children a woman would have at current age-specific birth rates. A rate of about 2.1 is needed to keep a population stable without migration. England and Wales reached a record-low TFR of 1.39 in 2025, the fourth consecutive record low.
Estimated TFR by ethnic group, England & Wales
Estimated fertility rates by ethnic group, derived from ONS 2025 live births by ethnicity divided by 2021 census women aged 15–44 in each group. These are not official ONS figures (ONS does not publish TFR by ethnicity). The Mixed group estimate is adjusted to remove cross-ethnicity attribution: ONS records baby's ethnicity, so Mixed-heritage babies inflate the raw figure while their mothers belong to other groups. See methodology section for details.
Share of 2025 live births by ethnic group, England & Wales
Total live births 2025: 584,589 (England, Wales and Elsewhere)
Each group's share of England & Wales 2025 live births. White British accounted for over half. The Chinese figure is an estimate — ONS combined Chinese with ‘Any other Asian background’ in this release, and the Chinese share is apportioned using literature TFR and 2021 census women 15–44. ‘Not stated’ represents births where ethnicity was not recorded.
Methodology
Methodology & caveats
Data sources
- Census
- ONS Census 2021, Table 3 — detailed ethnic group by single year of age and sex, England & Wales
- Fertility
- Group-specific TFR estimates derived from ONS 2025 linked-births data (Table 6) divided by 2021 census women 15-44 by ethnicity (RM032-detailed); see GROUP_TFR comment for two attribution-related adjustments.
Estimated fertility rate by group (estimates, not official ONS figures)
| Ethnic group | Estimated TFR |
|---|---|
| White British | 1.23 |
| Other White | 1.32 |
| Mixed | 1.70 |
| Indian | 2.22 |
| Pakistani | 2.54 |
| Bangladeshi | 2.32 |
| Chinese | 1.15 |
| Other Asian | 2.16 |
| Black | 2.22 |
| Other | 1.45 |
ONS does not publish total fertility rate by ethnicity. These rates are derived estimates held constant across the projection.
These estimated rates are the fertility inputs to the population projection by ethnic group modelled by British Political Data.
Sources