Population projections by ethnic group: a model for England and Wales
This model, built by British Political Data, projects the population of England and Wales by ethnic group from 2021 to 2100 under different migration scenarios, starting from a 2021 base population of 59.5 million built from Census 2021 data.
A note on TFR assumptions
All three projection scenarios below hold each ethnic group's total fertility rate (TFR) constant at its current estimated level for the full 75-year projection. This is a significant assumption — historically, fertility tends to converge across groups within 2–3 generations, with first-generation arrivals having higher TFRs than their UK-born children. If group TFRs converge toward the national average over time, the divergence between groups shown below would be smaller. If overall TFR continues to fall below 1.3, total populations would be smaller. These projections show demographic mechanics under fixed fertility inputs, not predictions of the future.
Projection
Population Projection by Ethnic Group: Zero-Migration Scenario, 2021–2100
England & Wales population by ethnic group, count
This shows how the England & Wales population would change from 2021 if all net migration stopped and each group's fertility stayed at its current estimated level. Because ethnic groups differ in age structure and fertility, their shares shift even with no migration. This is a demographic illustration of natural change, not a prediction.
Age structure
Population structure by age and ethnicity, projected decades
Showing projection step closest to selected decade. Model runs in 5-year steps so e.g. “2030” = 2031 step.
Ethnic composition by age band, 2050
Each bar shows the ethnic composition of an age band (or ‘generation’) at the selected decade. In Share view, each bar normalises to 100%, making it easy to see how the ethnic mix differs between younger and older cohorts. Under zero migration, the 65+ cohort remains overwhelmingly White British across the projection because today's older generation will largely still be the older generation in 2050, 2070 and so on. Younger cohorts diverge from the national share as group-specific fertility plays out.
Migration
Migration scenarios
Includes actual ONS migration figures for 2021–2025 (~2.7M net), then assumes zero net migration from 2026 onwards.
England & Wales population by ethnic group, 2021–2100 (with migration to 2025), count
Population trajectory if 2021–2025 migration is included but net migration drops to zero from 2026 onwards. Compare with the zero-migration scenario above to see the lasting demographic legacy of the 2021–2025 migration period.
Showing projection step closest to selected decade. Model runs in 5-year steps so e.g. “2030” = 2031 step.
Ethnic composition by age band, 2030 (with migration to 2025)
Same view as above, but including 2021–2025 migration. Younger age bands become substantially more diverse than under zero migration, because 2021–2025 migration was concentrated in working-age (20–39) arrivals — the children of those arrivals enter the under-20 cohort by 2040 and onwards. The 65+ cohort still skews White British in earlier decades but converges over time as today's younger cohorts age.
Methodology
Methodology & caveats
Caveats
- Zero net migration is assumed from 2021 onward. This is a deliberate scenario, not a forecast.
- Group-specific fertility rates are derived empirically from ONS 2025 births-by-ethnicity divided by 2021 census women aged 15-44. They are not official ONS TFR figures (ONS does not publish TFR by ethnicity). The Mixed group rate is adjusted downward from the raw empirical figure to remove cross-ethnicity attribution inflation; Chinese uses a literature estimate as ONS did not break it out in the 2025 release.
- Fertility rates are held CONSTANT for 79 years. In reality minority fertility is falling and converging toward the national low, so this model overstates the long-run divergence between groups. A converging-TFR variant would show greater convergence by 2100.
- National mortality rates are applied to all ethnic groups equally. Mortality actually varies modestly by ethnicity.
- Children are assigned their mother's ethnic group. Mixed partnerships and changing self-identification are not modelled.
- A 79-year horizon is highly uncertain. ONS publishes projections of 25-50 years and flags even those as uncertain.
- England & Wales only. Scotland and Northern Ireland are excluded.
- Census base population uses single-year-of-age data with ONS cell-key perturbation applied for disclosure control. Suppressed cells (under 0.1% of population in aggregate) are treated as zero.
- The model uses 5-year projection steps with linear interpolation between them.
Migration scenarios
Migration scenarios. The “2021–2025 migration, then zero” scenario uses ONS Long-term International Migration data (November 2025 release) for the period 2021–2025, then assumes zero net migration from 2026 onwards. This isolates the long-term demographic legacy of the 2021–2025 migration surge from any assumption about future flows.
Gross flows, not net. Immigration and emigration are tracked separately per ethnic group per year (~2.7 million net cumulative 2021–2025, comprising ~5.0 million arrivals and ~2.3 million departures). This matters because the age and ethnic composition of those leaving the UK differs systematically from those arriving — net figures hide this churn.
Nationality-to-ethnicity mapping. ONS publishes migration by nationality, not by ethnic group. Indian nationals are mapped to the Indian ethnic group, Pakistani to Pakistani, and so on. British nationals are mapped ~74% to White British, ~5% to Other White, and ~21% across other groups proportional to UK ethnic composition. EU+ nationals are mapped ~95% to Other White. These are simplifying assumptions; the actual ethnic composition of each nationality flow is not directly observable.
British emigration concentration. The Nov 2025 ONS methodology change (using DWP RAPID administrative data) revealed substantially more British emigration in 2024–2025 than previously estimated. The figures here use the post-revision ONS numbers, which concentrate British emigration in those two years. The true historical pattern was likely more even, but pre-2024 ONS measurements undercounted Brit emigration.
Migrant age and sex. A single age distribution is applied to both immigration and emigration: 15% under 15, 30% age 15–24, 40% age 25–39, 14% age 40–64, 1% age 65+. Sex split is 52% male / 48% female. These match ONS aggregate distributions; in reality, British emigrants are slightly older than non-EU+ migrants but the difference is small.
Data sources
- Census base population
- ONS Census 2021, Table 3 — detailed ethnic group by single year of age and sex, England & Wales
- Fertility
- Group-specific TFR estimates derived from ONS 2025 linked-births data (Table 6) divided by 2021 census women 15-44 by ethnicity (RM032-detailed); see GROUP_TFR comment for two attribution-related adjustments.
- Mortality
- ONS National Life Tables, England & Wales 2022-2024 (December 2025)
- Migration
- ONS Long-term International Migration, provisional: year ending December 2025 (Nov 2025 release, revised using DWP RAPID and Home Office Borders and Immigration data).
Estimated fertility rate by group (estimates, not official ONS figures)
| Ethnic group | Estimated TFR |
|---|---|
| White British | 1.23 |
| Other White | 1.32 |
| Mixed | 1.70 |
| Indian | 2.22 |
| Pakistani | 2.54 |
| Bangladeshi | 2.32 |
| Chinese | 1.15 |
| Other Asian | 2.16 |
| Black | 2.22 |
| Other | 1.45 |
ONS does not publish total fertility rate by ethnicity. These rates are derived estimates held constant across the projection.
For the official ONS projection of the UK population, see UK population. For the fertility rates behind this model, see UK fertility rate and births.
Sources