By-election · London
Holborn and St Pancras By-Election 2026
Sir Keir Starmer stood down as MP on 1 September 2026, triggering a by-election in the seat he had held since 2015. Sagal Abdi-Wali held the seat for Labour on 8 October 2026 with a majority of 3,364.
Labour Hold, 2026Majority 3,364Last updated 9 October 2026
Polling day
Closed
8 October 2026
Polls open 7am to 10pm
Candidates
Who is standing
The full ballot of 15 candidates, confirmed by Camden Council on 15 September 2026. Select a candidate for details.
Sagal Abdi-WaliLabour
Defending a seat Labour won with 48.9% in 2024. Abdi-Wali leads Camden Council, the local authority covering the constituency.
Leader of Camden Council
Selected 9 September 2026
Zack PolanskiGreen
The Green leader is standing in a seat where the party took 10.4% in 2024, behind Labour and the independent Andrew Feinstein.
Leader of the Green Party
Selected 11 September 2026
Peter NewmanReform
Standing for Reform UK, which took 6.1% here in 2024.
Former Metropolitan Police officer
Nominated
Ewan CameronConservative
Standing for the Conservatives, who took 7.2% here in 2024.
Former Camden councillor
Nominated
Patrick StillmanLib Dem
Standing for the Liberal Democrats, who took 5.8% here in 2024.
Camden councillor
Nominated
George GallowayWorkers Party
The Workers Party leader replaces Hussain Shafiei, who had earlier been announced as the party’s candidate.
Leader of the Workers Party of Britain
Nominated
Tyler JohnsonRestore
Standing for Restore Britain.
Lawyer
Nominated
Ben WalkerUKIP
Standing for UKIP.
Nominated
Helen Spiby-VannChristian Peoples Alliance
Standing for the Christian Peoples Alliance.
Nominated
Briony KapoorRejoin EU
Standing for Rejoin EU.
Nominated
Clare FischerClimate Party
Standing for the Climate Party.
Nominated
Ketankumar PipaliyaUK Voice
Standing for UK Voice.
Nominated
Jonathan SilbermanCommunist League
Standing for the Communist League.
Nominated
Barmy BrunchMonster Raving Loony
Standing for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party.
Nominated
Tom DarwoodNo description
Standing without a party description on the ballot paper.
Nominated
Context
Why this by-election
Sir Keir Starmer (Labour) resigned on 1 September 2026. The former prime minister stood down as MP, taking the Chiltern Hundreds to vacate the seat he had held since 2015.
- 1 September 2026Keir Starmer resigns the seat
- 9 September 2026Labour selects Sagal Abdi-Wali
- 11 September 2026Greens select Zack Polanski
- 15 September 2026Nominations close: 15 candidates on the ballot
- 8 October 2026Polling day
- 9 October 2026Result declared: Labour hold, majority 3,364
Polling
Constituency polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork end | Sample | Labour | Green | Reform | Conservative | Lib Dem | Other | Restore | UKIP | Independent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| As of 1 October 2026, 7 days before polling day, no constituency poll has been published. | |||||||||||
Markets
Betting odds
| Source | Recorded | Outcome | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oddschecker | 1 October 2026 | Labour (1/10) | 91% |
| Oddschecker | 1 October 2026 | Green (15/2) | 12% |
| Oddschecker | 1 October 2026 | Workers Party (150/1) | 1% |
Projections
Projections compared
Model-based estimates from third parties, not polls of this constituency. Figures may change as models update.
| Source | Captured | Labour | Green | Reform | Conservative | Lib Dem | Other | Lab lead over Green |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 result | — | 48.9% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 21.5% | 38.5 pts |
| Electoral Calculus | 1 October 2026 | 40.0% | 24.0% | 14.6% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 10.6% | 16.0 pts |
| PollCheck | 1 October 2026 | 41.7% | 37.8% | 7.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 8.4% | 3.9 pts |
| Stats for Lefties | 1 October 2026 | 39.0% | 32.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 7.0 pts |
Electoral Calculus: Model-based projection from national polling on a general-election basis, not a local constituency poll. Its Other figure carries forward the 2024 independent vote, though Andrew Feinstein is not standing.
PollCheck: By-election model, central scenario. Labour win in 70% of 10,000 simulations. Other includes George Galloway (Workers Party) on 3.0%.
Stats for Lefties: Blend of the May 2026 local election results in the seat (69%) and GB polling trends (31%), as stated on the published graphic.
By-election
8 October 2026
Majority3,364
Turnout38.8%
ElectorateNot published
Candidates15
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sagal Abdi-Wali | Labour | 12,292 | 45.2% |
| Zack Polanski | Green Party | 8,928 | 32.8% |
| Ewan Cameron | Conservative | 1,922 | 7.1% |
| Peter Newman | Reform UK | 1,612 | 5.9% |
| Patrick Stillman | Liberal Democrat | 924 | 3.4% |
| Tyler Kurtis Johnson | Restore Britain | 692 | 2.5% |
| George Galloway | Workers Party of Britain | 314 | 1.2% |
| Briony Kapoor | Rejoin EU | 236 | 0.9% |
| Barmy Brunch | Official Monster Raving Loony Party | 87 | 0.3% |
| Helen Spiby-Vann | Christian Peoples Alliance | 63 | 0.2% |
| Clare Fischer | Climate Party | 51 | 0.2% |
| Ben Walker | UKIP | 51 | 0.2% |
| Ketankumar Pipaliya | UK Voice | 23 | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Silberman | Communist League | 9 | 0.0% |
| Tom Darwood | Independent | 7 | 0.0% |
27,211 valid votes. Shares are of valid votes. Source: Camden Council, retrieved 9 October 2026.
The Green gain of 22.4 points is partly consolidation: Andrew Feinstein (18.9%) and the Greens (10.4%) together took 29.4% in 2024, against 32.8% for the Greens now. Labour fell 3.7 points.
History
Previous elections
Starmer held the seat at three general elections. The 2019 and 2017 results are on the pre-2024 boundaries.
2024
Turnout 54.1%Labour18,884 - 48.9%
Other8,305 - 21.5%
Green4,030 - 10.4%
Conservative2,776 - 7.2%
Reform2,371 - 6.1%
Lib Dem2,236 - 5.8%
Majority 11,572
Other includes the independent Andrew Feinstein, who came second with 7,312 votes (18.9%). He is not standing this time and has endorsed the Green candidate.
2019
Turnout 66.0%Labour36,641 - 64.5%
Conservative8,878 - 15.6%
Lib Dem7,314 - 12.9%
Green2,746 - 4.8%
Brexit Party1,032 - 1.8%
Other175 - 0.3%
Majority 27,763
2017
Turnout 67.0%Labour41,343 - 70.1%
Conservative10,834 - 18.4%
Lib Dem4,020 - 6.8%
Green1,980 - 3.4%
UKIP727 - 1.2%
Other93 - 0.2%
Majority 30,509
Demographics
Demographics
Source: ONS Census 2021 (England, Wales, NI) and Scotland's Census 2022, aggregated to 2024 constituency boundaries by the House of Commons Library.
Ethnic composition
2021
White 54.8%White British 33.6%Asian 21.7%Black, African or Caribbean 10.7%Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups 6.8%Other 6.0%
England & Wales (2021)
White 83.0%White British 74.4%Asian 8.6%Black, African or Caribbean 3.7%Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups 2.7%Other 2.0%
2011
White 61.5%White British 42.0%Asian 19.5%Black, African or Caribbean 9.7%Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups 5.5%Other 3.7%
England & Wales (2011)
White 86.0%White British 80.5%Asian 7.5%Black, African or Caribbean 3.3%Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups 2.2%Other 1.0%
2001
White 68.2%White British 50.1%Asian 16.2%Black, African or Caribbean 9.2%Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups 3.7%Other 2.6%
England & Wales (2001)
White 91.3%White British 87.5%Asian 4.8%Black, African or Caribbean 2.2%Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups 1.3%Other 0.4%
Year-over-year comparison uses broad ethnic groups.
2011 values are reaggregated from 2011 Output Areas onto 2024 boundaries.
2001 values are reaggregated from 2001 LSOAs onto 2024 boundaries.
Country of birth
Holborn and St Pancras (2021)
UK 55.2%Other EU 13.8%Other countries 31.0%
England & Wales (2021)
UK 84.0%Other EU 6.0%Other countries 10.1%
Holborn and St Pancras (2011)
UK 57.9%Other EU 10.4%Other countries 31.7%
England & Wales (2011)
UK 86.6%Other EU 3.6%Other countries 9.8%
Holborn and St Pancras (2001)
UK 63.5%Other EU 5.7%Other countries 30.8%
England & Wales (2001)
UK 91.1%Other EU 1.4%Other countries 7.5%